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Live forecasts update automatically; written guidance last reviewed 23 June 2026 by the Australia Voice Weather Desk. Data from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and other national met services via Open-Meteo.
A strong cold front crossing southeastern Australia this week will bring heavy rain and gusty winds, with the heaviest falls likely over Victoria and southern New South Wales. Flood watches are current for several river catchments.
Where will the heaviest rain fall?
The front will draw a deep trough of moist air from the Tasman Sea. Victoria, especially the central and eastern ranges, and the NSW South Coast and Snowy Mountains can expect 50–100 millimetres in 24 hours. Isolated totals near 150 mm are possible under persistent thunderstorms. The rain will ease from the west by late Thursday.
How long will this weather last?
The front itself will pass within 12–18 hours, but a trailing upper low will keep showers and thunderstorms going for another day. Friday should see clearing from the south-west, though southern Victoria and Tasmania may have lingering drizzle. Conditions stabilise over the weekend as high pressure rebuilds.
Could this cold front lead to severe thunderstorms?
Yes. The combination of unstable air, strong wind shear and abundant moisture increases the chance of severe thunderstorms. Hazards include damaging wind gusts, heavy rain and large hail, particularly in eastern Victoria and southern NSW.
Will the heavy rain affect travel in the alpine areas?
Road closures are possible, especially on alpine passes and unsealed roads. The heavy rain may also cause landslips. Check local road alerts and avoid driving through floodwater. For current warnings visit the severe weather warning page.
Is this cold front unusual for the season?
Late-autumn cold fronts are common for southeastern Australia, but this system is stronger than average, tapping tropical moisture from the Tasman. Similar events occur every few years. Climate records show no long-term trend toward more intense autumn fronts in this region.
Sources
For city-specific forecasts, see our Melbourne weather and Sydney weather pages. Broader outlooks are on the Australia weather hub.